Chamber of Mines says falling output in gold, zinc and diamonds will weigh on near-term growth, but strong commodity prices and a wave of new projects point to a stronger medium-term outlook.

Namibia’s mining industry is bracing for a slower 2026, but the Chamber of Mines says the sector’s fundamentals remain sound — with strong gold and uranium prices offsetting weaker output, and a pipeline of new projects promising renewed growth ahead.

In the immediate term, the Chamber expects weaker real growth from the mining sector in 2026, driven largely by falling output in gold, zinc and diamonds. Gold production has dropped since Otjikoto shifted away from open-pit mining, zinc output remains subdued, and the diamond sector continues to feel the strain of soft global demand. Uranium production has also been uneven, though June’s sharp decline was largely due to a planned maintenance shutdown at Swakop Uranium rather than any deeper structural issue.

Crucially, the Chamber cautions that falling production volumes will not necessarily translate into falling value. Strong gold and uranium prices are expected to cushion the blow, propping up producer revenues, export earnings and fiscal contributions even as tonnages decline. The two commodities’ growing weight in the economy is already evident: uranium and gold made up 22.3% and 11.8% of Namibia’s total exports respectively in June.

“The near-term picture is therefore one of weaker production growth but comparatively resilient value generation,” the Chamber said. “This is particularly important as Namibia’s mining industry undergoes a transition away from some mature and declining operations towards a broader production base.”

Medium-term outlook brighter

Beyond 2026, the Chamber is more upbeat. It points to the advancement of the Twin Hills and Etango projects, the continued ramp-up of Langer Heinrich, and underground developments at Navachab and Otjikoto as developments that should progressively widen Namibia’s production base.

“Combined with favourable market conditions for uranium, gold and several base metals, these developments provide a foundation for renewed production growth, investment, employment and export earnings over the medium term,” the Chamber said.

The Chamber described 2026 as a transitional year for the industry — one in which lower output will weigh on real mining growth, but strong commodity prices should provide a critical buffer through export earnings and revenue.

“Over the medium term, the progression of new projects and expansion of existing operations is expected to strengthen and diversify Namibia’s mining industry,” it said. “Maintaining a competitive, stable and predictable operating environment will be critical to converting this investment pipeline into sustained economic growth.”