Expert commentary from Tanisha Schultz, Project Blue’s Senior Analyst.
High-grade manganese ore has historically played an important role in alloy production due to its higher manganese units, lower iron content and reduced reductant and energy requirements. These characteristics can improve furnace productivity and reduce operating costs, making high-grade ores an important blending component for many alloy producers.
The highest-grade manganese ores traded on the seaborne market are supplied primarily from Australia and Gabon, with smaller volumes originating from South Africa. This concentration of high-grade supply may come under increasing pressure over the medium term.
South32’s GEMCO mine, located on Groote Eylandt off the coast of Australia, is one of the world’s largest suppliers of high-grade, low-Fe manganese ore and is approaching the end of its current open-pit mine life, with production expected to decline over the medium term. The company is evaluating the Southern Lease deposit, a proposed extension that could support continued production beyond the current mine plan. However, the timing and outcome of any development decision remain uncertain.
In Gabon, which hosts the Moanda mine operated by Eramet, one of the world’s largest sources of high-grade manganese ore, the government has announced plans to ban exports of unprocessed manganese ore from 2029 as part of its beneficiation strategy. Although implementation remains uncertain, the policy reflects a broader trend towards resource nationalism and domestic value addition among producing countries.
While uncertainty persists regarding both developments, they collectively suggest a potential long-term decrease in the availability of high-grade manganese ore shipped by sea. Although alternative supplies may arise, the replacement materials are likely to vary in grade, iron content, and value-in-use (VIU) characteristics. Consequently, these factors may become increasingly significant in raw material procurement and blending strategies, especially for alloy producers aiming to optimise furnace performance while managing rising input costs. These changes may have implications not only for procurement strategies but also for the pricing and benchmarking of high-grade manganese ore.
Global manganese ore pricing remains anchored to a small number of reference benchmarks. The 36–37% Mn CIF China price continues to serve as the primary benchmark for the seaborne market, given the liquidity of South African medium-grade ore and China’s dominant position in global manganese ore imports. At the higher end of the market, Australian ore has historically underpinned the 45% Mn benchmark, which has served as the principal reference price for high-grade manganese ore. Alongside these benchmarks, producer offering prices from suppliers such as CML, South32, NMT and UMK often provide an early indication of market direction, while portside prices reflect prevailing alloy market conditions, inventory availability and smelter margins.
While benchmark pricing is expected to remain linked to the medium-grade market, high-grade and semi-carbonate ores are likely to continue following their respective pricing indices rather than being priced at fixed premiums or discounts to medium-grade benchmarks. Historically, high-grade ores have commanded higher prices owing to their higher manganese content and favourable metallurgical characteristics.
Should the availability of traditional high-grade ores decline over time, the composition of the high-grade market may also evolve. In this scenario, a 44% Mn benchmark could increasingly replace the historical 45% Mn benchmark as the principal reference grade for high-grade seaborne ore. Despite these changes, high-grade manganese ore prices are expected to remain supported beyond 2029, reflecting both tighter availability and the continued VIU advantages of higher-grade material.
Transitional mechanisms, including export quotas, captive supply marketed at prevailing market prices, inventory drawdowns, or slower-than-expected downstream capacity growth, could increase the volume of high-grade ore available to the seaborne market, supporting continued price discovery and market liquidity. Over the longer term, premiums for high-grade ore may become increasingly influenced by the cost of upgrading lower-grade material and the metallurgical benefits associated with higher-quality feedstocks. Consequently, pricing differentials between ore categories may increasingly reflect differences in value-in-use rather than grade alone.
Limitations and alternative pathways
• Potential high-grade entrants (e.g. Zambia, Brazil, Togo) could partially offset supply tightness, though scale, timing, and cost competitiveness remain uncertain.
• Gabon’s ore export ban from 2029 introduces policy uncertainty. While full absorption into domestic smelting is the stated objective, export quotas may be implemented during the ramp-up phase, allowing some high-grade ore to remain in the seaborne market.
For those looking to explore the outlook for manganese and the wider ferroalloys market in greater depth, these topics will be discussed further at the Critical Materials Conference: Ferroalloys 2026, taking place from 8-9 September, in Johannesburg.
Find out more and secure your place: https://www.projectblue.com/events/41/critical-materials-conference:-ferroalloys-2026
